Cowboys stun Chiefs on Thanksgiving, reshaping 2025 NFL playoff race
The Dallas Cowboys didn’t just win a Thanksgiving game—they upended the entire 2025 NFL playoff picture with a stunning 31-28 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs on November 27, 2025. The win didn’t just snap Kansas City’s five-game winning streak; it sent shockwaves through the AFC race, knocked the Indianapolis Colts out of first place, and gave the New England Patriots a near-unshakeable grip on the top seed. For fans who remember the Patriots’ 4-13 disaster in 2024, this turnaround feels surreal. Now 10-2, they’re riding a nine-game win streak with a 99% chance of making the playoffs—the highest probability of any team in the conference. But here’s the thing: their schedule has been the easiest in the league (.346 strength of schedule, per NFL.com). That’s not a fluke. It’s a statement.
The AFC Shake-Up: Patriots, Broncos, and the Collapsing Contenders
The New England Patriots aren’t just leading the AFC—they’re running away with it. At 10-2, they’ve already matched their win total from last season in just 12 games. Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos sit at 9-2, their playoff probability climbing 14 percentage points after the Colts’ loss. But here’s the twist: Denver hasn’t played as many games yet. The Patriots hold the tiebreaker advantage, and with two games in hand, they’re in the driver’s seat. The real story? The collapse of the challengers. The Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers both lost on Thanksgiving, effectively removing them from serious contention for the No. 1 seed. Their playoff probabilities? Down to 19% and 25%, respectively. The door is open—and the Broncos, not the Chiefs, are stepping through.
Chiefs’ Loss and the Colts’ Slip: A Domino Effect
The Kansas City Chiefs entered Thanksgiving as the AFC’s most dangerous team. Patrick Mahomes was rolling. But the Cowboys’ defense, led by Micah Parsons and a relentless pass rush, held him to just 187 passing yards and two interceptions. The loss dropped Kansas City to 7-4 and tied them with the Los Angeles Chargers and Indianapolis Colts at 28% playoff leverage. But the real casualty? Indianapolis. The Colts fell to 8-3 after their 24-20 defeat to Kansas City, slipping one game behind Denver despite holding the head-to-head tiebreaker. That’s the cruel irony of the NFL: win the game, lose the race. Their playoff probability dropped from 91% to 86% overnight. The Colts still control their destiny—but now they need help.
The NFC: Rams Lead, But the Pack Is Tight
While the AFC got the drama, the NFC is a mess of parity. The Los Angeles Rams sit atop the conference at 9-2, but only because they’ve avoided the brutal NFC East and North. The Philadelphia Eagles and Chicago Bears are both 8-3, and both are dangerous. The Eagles have Jalen Hurts back to MVP form. The Bears? Their defense is the best in the league since Week 8. And then there’s Tampa Bay, sitting in the fourth playoff spot with an unknown record—likely 7-5 or 8-4—thanks to a weak NFC South. The race isn’t just tight; it’s unpredictable. Whoever wins the NFC West will likely be the top seed. But if the Rams stumble? The Eagles could sneak in as the #1 seed. It’s a coin flip.
Cowboys’ Remaining Schedule: A Minefield of Opportunities
Don’t mistake Dallas’s win as a fluke. They’ve got the talent. CeeDee Lamb was in action against Kansas City, hauling in 122 yards and two touchdowns. Dak Prescott looked sharp, and the offensive line didn’t allow a sack. But here’s what comes next: a gauntlet. On December 4, they travel to face the Detroit Lions (7-5), who just beat the Packers in a thriller. Then comes the Minnesota Vikings (4-7) on December 14—dangerous at home. The real test? December 21, when the Los Angeles Chargers (7-4) roll into AT&T Stadium. That’s a potential playoff preview. And then? Christmas Day in Washington against the Washington Commanders (3-8). A win there? That’s a statement. A loss? Suddenly, the Cowboys are scrambling.
What’s Next? The Final Push
The regular season ends in early January 2026. Eight AFC teams still have at least a 19% chance to make the playoffs: the Houston Texans (31%), Jacksonville Jaguars (29%), Chargers (28%), Chiefs (28%), Steelers (25%), Colts (21%), Ravens (21%), and Bills (19%). That’s a lot of teams still breathing. But only two will get byes. And right now, it’s New England and Denver. The rest are fighting for the last three spots. The Ravens, despite their 6-5 record, are still in it. The Jaguars? They’ve got the toughest remaining schedule—but also the most explosive offense in the AFC outside of Kansas City.
Why This Matters
This isn’t just about who makes the playoffs. It’s about momentum. The Patriots’ rise from worst to first in one year is the most dramatic turnaround in recent memory. The Cowboys, once seen as a fringe playoff team, are now legitimate Super Bowl threats. And the Chiefs? They’re still dangerous—but now they’re on the outside looking in. The NFL’s beauty has always been its unpredictability. But this year? It’s pure chaos. Every game matters. Every turnover changes history. And on Thanksgiving, Dallas didn’t just eat turkey—they stole the spotlight.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did the Cowboys’ win over the Chiefs affect the AFC playoff seeding?
The Cowboys’ win dropped the Chiefs to 7-4 and eliminated them as a serious contender for the No. 1 seed. It also allowed the Broncos to leapfrog the Colts in the standings, giving Denver a clearer path to the top spot. With the Bills and Steelers also losing, the AFC’s playoff race now centers on New England, Denver, and Indianapolis—with Dallas as a potential wild card threat.
Why is the Patriots’ 10-2 record considered surprising?
Last season, the Patriots went 4-13. Their 10-2 record in 2025 represents a 15-win improvement in just one year—the largest single-season turnaround in franchise history. Even more remarkable? They’ve played the league’s easiest schedule (.346 strength of schedule), meaning their record could be even better if they faced tougher opponents. Their turnaround is a mix of coaching adjustments, improved offensive line play, and breakout performances from young players like rookie RB Jalen Brown.
Who has the best chance to win the NFC?
The Los Angeles Rams lead the NFC at 9-2, but their schedule softness makes them vulnerable. The Eagles and Bears are both 8-3 and have tougher defenses. Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts is playing like an MVP, while Chicago’s defense has allowed fewer than 17 points per game since Week 8. The Rams’ path to the Super Bowl runs through the NFC West, which is weaker than the East or North. But if Hurts stays healthy, the Eagles are the most likely NFC representative.
What’s the significance of the Colts’ head-to-head tiebreaker over Denver?
The Colts beat Denver 27-24 in Week 7, giving them the tiebreaker advantage if both finish with identical records. That means if Denver wins their remaining games and Indianapolis loses one, Denver still gets the higher seed. But if both teams finish 10-7, the Colts get the nod. That’s why Indianapolis’s loss to Kansas City was so costly—it didn’t just drop their win total, it removed their cushion against Denver.
Can the Dallas Cowboys still win the NFC East?
No. The Cowboys are in the NFC, but they play in the NFC East. As of Week 13, they’re 8-4, one game behind the Eagles (8-3) and two behind the Commanders (3-8) in the division standings. Wait—that’s incorrect. The Cowboys are in the NFC East, and they’re currently 8-4, tied with the Eagles at 8-3. But the Eagles hold the tiebreaker after beating Dallas in Week 6. So while Dallas can’t win the division now, they can still earn a wild card spot if they finish 10-7 or better.
What’s the earliest possible date for the 2025 NFL playoffs to begin?
The regular season ends on January 5, 2026. The NFL playoffs typically begin the following weekend, meaning the earliest possible start date is January 10, 2026. The Wild Card round will feature the 3rd through 6th seeds in each conference, with the top two seeds earning byes. The divisional round follows on January 17-18, with the conference championships on January 25-26 and Super Bowl LX in New Orleans on February 8, 2026.
